This is a high stakes game the Prez is playing right now. It could go really good, or it could go really bad. Him and his merry band of warriors have laid down a very big wager on the come line, to the tune of over 5 trillion dollars. The question is; is it really necessary? Let’s examine the odds as they pertain to all of us that are spectators.
If you lived your life exactly the same as you did a month ago, before this all happened, how would you be affected?
They have determined that you are three times more likely to contract COVID-19 than the average influenza. Here are the average statistics, they vary from year to year, but this is close, so you can see what your odds are.
Average number of people that get the flu each year: 9.2 to 35 million, between 140,000 to 700,000 will be hospitalized. The average is between 5% and 20% of the population will be infected with the flu in any given year. Sixty to seventy thousand will die.
That means you personally stand about five to six percent chance of contracting the flu, if you haven’t been vaccinated. Those are pretty good odds. So even though COVID-19 is three time more contagious, you’re still only looking at about 15 – 20% chance of getting it.
So, what happens if you get it? These are the numbers so far today. In the United States, there are currently 35,270 confirmed cases, 471 resulting deaths. That is about a .013% mortality rate. I believe that’s about where it has been from the beginning. From what I have been reading and hearing, these deaths are primarily elderly, and folks with compromised health. In a regular year, the mortality rate for the flu is .07%. A flu shot is going to give you a little edge, they are rated at only 47% effective.
So, if I am interpreting all of these numbers correctly, the mortality rate of COVID-19 so far is looking like its about less than 2%, and the mortality rate for the average flu is about 7%.
So, is trashing the economy, with over the top preventative measures worth it? Personally, although I am in the very high risk category at 79 years old, I’m not so sure. So many people are going to be hurt very badly financially, many may never recover. If someone loses their small business, and they are in their mid to late sixties, their lives will be destroyed and will probably never be able to recover. They may lose everything they have worked all of their lives for. When you consider they have faced even greater odds for years dealing with yearly flu outbreaks, this doesn’t seem fair. Our small businesses are the true economic engine in the USA. Why would we kill off our businesses trying to drive down the mortality rate that has been totally acceptable for years.
So, here is what we need to tell our government. Get it fixed in two weeks, because we are going back to work, and resuming our lives whether you like it or not. You may not be able to develop a vaccine that quickly, we understand that, but get your collective asses in gear and figure out an effective treatment. In the meantime, we’ll take our chances, it looks like the odds are in our favor.
VERITAS VINCIT ~ LIVE FREE OR DIE
steelpencil.com 
I agree with your assessment Ben. But expecting the monkeys to come up with a solution in 2 weeks is a pipe dream. All of this is so predictable. These people have no solutions. This is just a warm up to the big event. Make america a great police state. As always please don’t drink the kool aid.
LikeLike
I’m not sure what they are trying to accomplish, the numbers don’t warrant the response. This is what I think is really going on. Trump wants four more years, I think he feels if he does’t give this a “balls out ” approach it will kill his chances. But plunging the nation into a 30% bigger national debt doesn’t calculate in my pea brain. It’s like killing flies with a 12 ga. shotgun.
LikeLike